Pairing and Common-Era window follow Koutsoyiannis, D. (2024), Stochastic assessment of temperature–CO₂ causal relationship in climate from the Phanerozoic through modern times, Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering 21:6560–6602. That paper compiles Kouwenberg 2004 (stomata, from ~AD 200), van Hoof et al. 2008 (oaks, 1000–1500), and Antarctic ice (Indermühle 1999, Etheridge 1996 / Francey 1999).
Compilation and Common-Era pairing follow Koutsoyiannis 2024, Math. Biosci. Eng. 21:6560–6602: stomata from Kouwenberg 2004 (thesis Fig. 5.4) and van Hoof et al. 2008, ice from Etheridge/Rubino Law Dome and Indermühle/Monnin Antarctic cores.
Ice-core series are original NOAA NCEI / NOAA GML files. The Kouwenberg 0–2000 curve is the 3-point mean extracted from the vector figure in the 2004 thesis — the same figure Koutsoyiannis digitized.
van Hoof 2008 Table S1 is not archived as a NOAA time series; the curve here is pinned to the published 292.3–319.2 ppm extrema and the 1000–1500 shape described in the PNAS paper.
Further back than ~2,000 years, stomata coverage is no longer a continuous millennial series. Wagner 2004 still has dense, multi-site Holocene snapshots (Preboreal, 8.2 ka, last millennium). Those event windows are plotted against continuous Dome C / WAIS ice.
Ice cores average air over years to a decade as bubbles close. Stomata record a growing-season snapshot with large biological scatter. A 3-point mean is what the stomata authors compare to ice.
Beck 2007 compiled ~90,000 chemical (Pettenkofer-style) analyses, 1812–1961, into a northern-hemisphere yearly series. The curve plotted here is that paper’s 11-year smooth. These are local, near-ground samples, not well-mixed marine air; the 1942 maximum (>420 ppm) is the feature ice cores and stomata do not reproduce.
Instrumental CO₂ is NOAA GML: Mauna Loa annual means 1959–2025 and the global marine-boundary network 1979–2025. 2026 is year-to-date from the NOAA deseasonalized monthly trend (Mauna Loa through July, global through May). Ice cores do not reach 2026 — bubble close-off ends the high-resolution Law Dome record in the 1990s. Stomata series end with their published material (Finsinger 2000, Kouwenberg ~2000).
Temperature is on the right axis and starts off. HadCRUT5 analysis (Morice 2021) is the kriged global land+ocean anomaly vs 1961–1990. HadCRUT5 non-infilled is the same CRUTEM5+HadSST4 observations without filling empty grid cells — not raw unhomogenized thermometers. 2025 is +1.19 °C infilled vs +1.11 °C non-infilled. UAH v6.1 TLT (Spencer/Christy) is satellite lower-troposphere temperature vs 1991–2020, 1979–2026. Those two baselines are not the same, and UAH is not a surface thermometer. PAGES 2k (Neukom 2019) is the Common-Era multi-proxy ensemble median on the 1961–1990 baseline, 1–2000 CE. EPICA Dome C ΔT (Jouzel 2007) is deuterium temperature vs the last 1,000 years.
NOAA GML analyser files: trends data page. Law Dome 2018: NCEI study 25830. Kouwenberg thesis: Utrecht dspace. van Hoof 2008: PNAS. Temperature: HadCRUT5 (analysis and non-infilled) , UAH v6.1 TLT, PAGES 2k, EPICA Dome C ΔT.
The industrial rise is the one feature both families agree on. Where they disagree is amplitude, and that disagreement grows as the window opens. Pre-industrial Law Dome is almost flat. Kouwenberg’s Roman maximum sits ~80 ppm above the same ice. Wagner’s 8.2 ka Betula snapshot swings ~80 ppm while Dome C moves a few.