Climate proxies

Stomata vs Ice

Plant leaves keep a growing-season count of pores. Antarctic ice keeps bubbles of old air. Nineteenth-century chemists titrated the air itself. Mauna Loa is still measuring. Temperature sits on the right axis when you turn it on — HadCRUT5 infilled or non-infilled, UAH, PAGES 2k, Dome C deuterium.

1860–2026

Industrial rise

Ice climbs from ~286 to 370 ppm by the late 1990s. Mauna Loa and the NOAA marine network continue the record to 2026 (~429 ppm). Stomatal density tracks the rise once a 3-point mean is taken. Beck’s 2007 chemical compilation spikes through 430 ppm around 1942 — a peak ice, stomata and the modern analyser record do not share. Temperature (HadCRUT5, UAH) is off by default — turn it on in Records.

1900ice 295.1Finsinger 310.0Kouwenberg 288.2Beck 290.0

Dashed sage = stomata 3-point means. Dotted copper = Beck 2007. Ice samples are points. Mauna Loa / NOAA marine run through 2026. Temperature is off until you turn it on — HadCRUT5 analysis vs non-infilled, UAH satellite TLT.

1–2026

Common Era

Koutsoyiannis 2024 sources: Kouwenberg’s two-millennium Tsuga reconstruction against Law Dome / WAIS ice, with van Hoof’s Dutch oaks on 1000–1500. Stomata swing 80 ppm; ice does not. Mauna Loa at the right edge is the only CO₂ series that actually reaches 2026. Temperature (PAGES 2k, HadCRUT5, UAH) is off until you turn it on.

250ice 279.1Kouwenberg 356.1

Kouwenberg 2004 3-point mean vs Law Dome. van Hoof oaks cover 1000–1500 only. Mauna Loa is the white CO₂ line at the right edge. Temperature (PAGES 2k, HadCRUT5, UAH) is off until you turn it on.

Holocene · ka BP

Holocene

As far back as stomata still have clustered, reproducible Holocene records. Ice (Dome C, WAIS) is continuous and tight until the firn. Mauna Loa is the thin CO₂ spike on the far right. Temperature (Dome C deuterium, HadCRUT5, UAH) is off by default.

2.00 ka BP

Axis is thousands of years before present; the last tick is now. Temperature (Dome C ΔT, HadCRUT5, UAH) is off until you turn it on.

Records

21 series

Ice cores
Stomata proxies
Chemical methods
Instrumental CO₂
Temperature

Discrepancy

Roman stomata
357.0ppm
Law Dome ~AD 225
281.0ppm
Gap at AD 225
+76ppm
Pre-1850 ice span
15ppm
Mauna Loa 2026 YTD
428.7ppm
Mauna Loa 2025
427.4ppm

RMSE vs Law Dome

  • Finsinger · 1860–200020.5 ppm
  • Beck 2007 · 1860–196138.2 ppm
  • Kouwenberg · 154–185029.7 ppm
  • van Hoof · 1000–150025.9 ppm
  • Wagner 8.2 ka17.9 ppm

Pre-industrial Law Dome wanders ~15 ppm. Kouwenberg over the same centuries wanders ~106 ppm. Stomata authors quote ±36 to ±40 ppm reconstruction error — larger than ice-core analytic precision (~1 ppm). Hover year 225.

Catalog

Ice cores are NOAA originals. The two-millennium stomata curve is the 3-point mean from Kouwenberg 2004 Fig. 5.4 — the series Koutsoyiannis 2024 pairs with ice. van Hoof 2008 is pinned to published extrema. Wagner 2004 supplies the 8.2 ka Holocene snapshot. Beck 2007 is the 11-year chemical compilation on the industrial chart. Mauna Loa and the NOAA marine network run through 2026.

  • Buried western-hemlock needles, ~AD 1–2000. Four CO₂ minima of 250–275 ppm (ca. AD 730, 1040, 1550, 1800) and a Roman-era maximum of ~357 ppm — about 80 ppm above coeval Law Dome ice. Linear TSDL–CO₂ calibration on herbarium material over 290–370 ppm.

    Kouwenberg 2004 PhD thesis, LPP Contributions 16; Kouwenberg et al. 2005, Geology 33:33–36

    Digitized from a published figure

    Species Tsuga heterophylla

Also known, not plotted

  • Indermühle et al. 1999 Taylor Dome

    The Holocene ice series Kouwenberg plots as white diamonds. Superseded here by the Bereiter 2015 Dome C / WAIS compilation, which includes that interval.

    Nature 398:121–126

  • Etheridge et al. 1996 Law Dome

    The ice series Kouwenberg plots as white squares. Rubino et al. 2019 (Law Dome spline) is the revised version of the same cores.

    J. Geophys. Res. 101:4115–4128

  • Wagner et al. 2004 Preboreal (Fig. 2D)

    Splan Pond, 11,620–10,920 cal BP, with a CO₂ minimum at 11,120 cal BP. Same amplitude as the 8.2 ka panel plotted above; not vector-clean enough to extract as a second line.

    Quat. Sci. Rev. 23:1947–1954

  • McElwain et al. 2002 Younger Dryas

    Salix stomata across the YD stadial. A rare case where stomata and Antarctic ice both show a decline — still with larger stomatal scatter.

    J. Quaternary Sci. 17:21–29

  • Rundgren & Beerling 1999

    The longest Holocene stomatal-index series (Salix herbacea, northern Sweden). Not in NOAA Paleo-pCO₂ (that archive is Cenozoic) and not digitized here.

    The Holocene 9

  • GHCN-M v4 unadjusted (QCU)

    Station-level quality-controlled unadjusted monthly temperatures. NOAA does not publish a ready-made global mean of the unadjusted file; a cosine-weighted global average from ~27,000 stations is a separate reconstruction, not plotted here. HadCRUT5 non-infilled is the official ‘no empty-cell filling’ option.

    Menne et al. 2018; ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/v4

Download the data

Each series as a CSV, plus a zip of those files with the original NOAA tables. Ice and Mauna Loa are tidy extracts of public archives. Stomata and Beck have no NOAA time series — those CSVs are our digitizations, so the paper link is the source of record. Some publisher pages are paywalled; the NOAA file links are the ones that resolve without a login.

Sources and methods

Pairing and Common-Era window follow Koutsoyiannis, D. (2024), Stochastic assessment of temperature–CO₂ causal relationship in climate from the Phanerozoic through modern times, Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering 21:6560–6602. That paper compiles Kouwenberg 2004 (stomata, from ~AD 200), van Hoof et al. 2008 (oaks, 1000–1500), and Antarctic ice (Indermühle 1999, Etheridge 1996 / Francey 1999).

Compilation and Common-Era pairing follow Koutsoyiannis 2024, Math. Biosci. Eng. 21:6560–6602: stomata from Kouwenberg 2004 (thesis Fig. 5.4) and van Hoof et al. 2008, ice from Etheridge/Rubino Law Dome and Indermühle/Monnin Antarctic cores.

Ice-core series are original NOAA NCEI / NOAA GML files. The Kouwenberg 0–2000 curve is the 3-point mean extracted from the vector figure in the 2004 thesis — the same figure Koutsoyiannis digitized.

van Hoof 2008 Table S1 is not archived as a NOAA time series; the curve here is pinned to the published 292.3–319.2 ppm extrema and the 1000–1500 shape described in the PNAS paper.

Further back than ~2,000 years, stomata coverage is no longer a continuous millennial series. Wagner 2004 still has dense, multi-site Holocene snapshots (Preboreal, 8.2 ka, last millennium). Those event windows are plotted against continuous Dome C / WAIS ice.

Ice cores average air over years to a decade as bubbles close. Stomata record a growing-season snapshot with large biological scatter. A 3-point mean is what the stomata authors compare to ice.

Beck 2007 compiled ~90,000 chemical (Pettenkofer-style) analyses, 1812–1961, into a northern-hemisphere yearly series. The curve plotted here is that paper’s 11-year smooth. These are local, near-ground samples, not well-mixed marine air; the 1942 maximum (>420 ppm) is the feature ice cores and stomata do not reproduce.

Instrumental CO₂ is NOAA GML: Mauna Loa annual means 1959–2025 and the global marine-boundary network 1979–2025. 2026 is year-to-date from the NOAA deseasonalized monthly trend (Mauna Loa through July, global through May). Ice cores do not reach 2026 — bubble close-off ends the high-resolution Law Dome record in the 1990s. Stomata series end with their published material (Finsinger 2000, Kouwenberg ~2000).

Temperature is on the right axis and starts off. HadCRUT5 analysis (Morice 2021) is the kriged global land+ocean anomaly vs 1961–1990. HadCRUT5 non-infilled is the same CRUTEM5+HadSST4 observations without filling empty grid cells — not raw unhomogenized thermometers. 2025 is +1.19 °C infilled vs +1.11 °C non-infilled. UAH v6.1 TLT (Spencer/Christy) is satellite lower-troposphere temperature vs 1991–2020, 1979–2026. Those two baselines are not the same, and UAH is not a surface thermometer. PAGES 2k (Neukom 2019) is the Common-Era multi-proxy ensemble median on the 1961–1990 baseline, 1–2000 CE. EPICA Dome C ΔT (Jouzel 2007) is deuterium temperature vs the last 1,000 years.

NOAA GML analyser files: trends data page. Law Dome 2018: NCEI study 25830. Kouwenberg thesis: Utrecht dspace. van Hoof 2008: PNAS. Temperature: HadCRUT5 (analysis and non-infilled) , UAH v6.1 TLT, PAGES 2k, EPICA Dome C ΔT.

The industrial rise is the one feature both families agree on. Where they disagree is amplitude, and that disagreement grows as the window opens. Pre-industrial Law Dome is almost flat. Kouwenberg’s Roman maximum sits ~80 ppm above the same ice. Wagner’s 8.2 ka Betula snapshot swings ~80 ppm while Dome C moves a few.